April 15, 2026
I just read about yet another supposed boon for the area that turned into a boondoggle. And several thousand people, including me, said, “We told you so!”
I have lived literally from the top of the country to the bottom, and from coast to almost-coast, and I have seen the scenario play out in every single area I’ve lived in.
So, I’ll say it again.
When someone comes to town with a brilliant idea about how they can bring economic prosperity to the area if the municipality will kick in a little in the way of tax credits and some cold, hard cash, be wary. There’s a lot that they’re probably not telling you.
Such as:
Their income projections are very likely based on 100% occupancy 365 days a year. What are the odds of that actually happening? If it’s a tourist attraction, the locals will only go so many times. Tourists will have their choice of many things to do, so they won’t all flock to one particular site. Chances are even smaller if it’s not the only one of its kind in a very large region.
They under-estimated the time to completion of site readiness. If you’ve ever done remodeling or had your home built, you know what I’m talking about.
They under-budgeted their construction costs. Construction costs rise the longer the project takes. Does their budget take that into account?
They haven’t accounted for the rising cost of operating expenses once the business is running. Those costs are never going to go down; do their income projections reflect that fact?
So, when I read about how ABC Company is going to be the economic savior of the region, I always do some simple math.
Income projection: Take 30% off the top.
Time to site readiness: Add 3-6 months minimum
Construction costs: Add 25%
Operating expenses once the business is running: Add 25% for a 5-year period
Then maybe, just maybe, you won’t have to listen to a chorus of people saying, “We told you so!”
